Publications

 

Further discussion and academic articles


For a fairly non-technical discussion, please see a talk on this subject at the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, or a radio interview with Radio Ecoshock. A slightly more technical short talk was presented at the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global & Regional Climate Change.


A selection of papers is outlined below.


A general physics for the evolution of economic innovation and growth


  1. Long run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis, Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2013EF000171

   

  1. Long run evolution of the global economy: 2. Hindcasts of Innovation and Growth, Earth System Dynamics Discussions


Methods and data for the calculation of the relationship between global wealth and power consumption


  1. Long run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis Supporting Material, Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2013EF000171


How should we model economic innovation and growth, and can we make long-run economic forecasts?


  1. Can we predict long run economic growth?, Retirement Management Journal 2 (2), 53-61


Can we think of the energy reserves as our global collective retirement account?

    Physics and your retirement savings: How energy reserves are like the world’s collective retirement account, Retirement Weekly, Oct 11, 2013


What are the implications for where civilization might be headed in a world where the economy becomes increasingly coupled to the environment?:


  1. No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change, Earth System Dynamics 3, 1-17, doi:10.5194/esd-3-1-2012


What are the basic economic identities in a physics-based model? And what do they mean for mitigating climate change?:


  1. Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide? Climatic Change, 104, 437-455,  doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9


  2. Modelling civilization as 'heat engine' could improve climate predictions - physicsworld.com  


What can we expect economic growth and CO2 emissions to be like in the coming decade or so?:


  1. How persistent is civilization growth? arXiv:1101.5635v1


For a more mathematical discussion of how I think we could describe the evolution of systems of arbitrary complexity (like civilization), expressed as a response to the discovery and depletion of reserves of energy and raw materials:


  1. Modes of Growth in Dynamic Systems doi:10.1098/rspa.2012.0039 (online at Proc. Roy. Soc. A), 2012