Further discussion and academic articles

For a fairly non-technical discussion, please see a talk on this subject at the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, or a radio interview with Radio Ecoshock. A slightly more technical short talk was presented at the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global & Regional Climate Change.

A selection of papers is outlined below.

A general physics for the evolution of economic innovation and growth

  1. Long run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis, Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2013EF000171

Methods and data for the calculation of the relationship between global wealth and power consumption

  1. Long run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis Supporting Material, Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2013EF000171

How should we model economic innovation and growth, and can we make long-run economic forecasts?

  1. Can we predict long run economic growth?, Retirement Management Journal 2 (2), 53-61

Can we think of the energy reserves as our global collective retirement account?

    Physics and your retirement savings: How energy reserves are like the world’s collective retirement account, Retirement Weekly, Oct 11, 2013

What are the implications for where civilization might be headed in a world where the economy becomes increasingly coupled to the environment?:

  1. No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change, Earth System Dynamics 3, 1-17, doi:10.5194/esd-3-1-2012

What are the basic economic identities in a physics-based model? And what do they mean for mitigating climate change?:

  1. Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide? Climatic Change, 104, 437-455,  doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9

  2. Modelling civilization as 'heat engine' could improve climate predictions -  

What can we expect economic growth and CO2 emissions to be like in the coming decade or so?:

  1. How persistent is civilization growth? arXiv:1101.5635v1

For a more mathematical discussion of how I think we could describe the evolution of systems of arbitrary complexity (like civilization), expressed as a response to the discovery and depletion of reserves of energy and raw materials:

  1. Modes of Growth in Dynamic Systems doi:10.1098/rspa.2012.0039 (online at Proc. Roy. Soc. A), 2012