Atmos 5120/6120: Words of Wisdom

Putting together a weather discussion requires preparation. Assembling figures and graphics loops can consume much of your time, allowing little time to think about the weather. Here's some suggestions to help you be as prepared as possible for the discussion.

Examine the weather regularly, preferably on a daily basis, especially during the days leading up to your discussion.
Go to the computer lab the day before your discussion and don't leave until you feel the weather in your veins. Then determine what you will likely need to focus on at tomorrow's discussion. Prepare a "battle plan" and discuss it with the TA or instructor.
Spend time looking at observations. Analyses are not observations. Metar and Mesowest observations, soundings, radar images, satellite images, web cams, etc., are observations. Know what has and is happening locally and regionally.
Use the forecast funnel to gain an understanding of the past, present, and future weather. Pick two or three major issues to discuss. Critical to this process is developing an intuition for (1) recognizing the social and/or scientific significance of weather events and (2) identifying the major forecast problem(s) of the day. Developing such intuition can only be done by making every effort to understand and predict the weather on a daily basis. Kudos if you keep a daily weather journal.
Use the forecast funnel as the outline for your discussion. Always start with the large scale and descend down to smaller scales. For example, if discussing the development of monsoonal convection over southern Utah, first use satelite imagery and synoptic analyses to define the evolution of the large scale before jumping to radar imagery and mesonet analyses. For example, a good outline follows below.
- IDV Global or Supernational bundle to describe the recent large-scale upper-level flow evolution. Toggle on and off fields as needed and stop the loop at specific times to discuss key features.
- IDV CONUS-West or Regional-West to describe the recent regional-scale pattern including fronts, flows, clouds, and precipitation. Toggle on and off fields as needed and stop at specific times to discuss key features.
- Soundings (KSLC and possibly elsewhere in the region) obtained from SPC.
- KMTX radar imagery using the IDV KMTX-2D-BREF Bundle or other online resource.
- Surface observations for northern Utah using Mesowest. I strongly recommend that you create a mesowest account and setup a profile to pull maps up quickly and easily.
- Time series for KSLC and other relevant sites.
- HRRR forecast through 0000 UTC this afternoon.
- Summarize your nowcast for the rest of the afternoon, including forecast variables through 00 UTC.
- NAM and GFS synoptic and (possibly) convective loops of weather.utah.edu
- NAM and GFS Bufr soundigs
- SREF forecast plumes from SPC and weather.utah.edu
- Summarize your short-range forecast for tonight and tomorrow, including forecast variables for 00-00 UTC
Keep it simple and specific. Stay focused on the 2-3 issues. Describe what you know, raise questions about what you don't. Don't handwave, don't BS and don't try to use new techniques you've just learned in class if you haven't had a chance to absorb and understand them.
Spend more time discussing observations and less time discussing model forecasts. There are 6 questions that need to be answered when forecasting (Bosart 2003), and the first four are: what happened, why did it happen, what is happening, and why is it happening? Answer these questions before moving on to the NWP guidance. The final two questions are what is going to happen and why is it going to happen. Total reliance upon NWP guidance to answer these questions should be avoided.
Never attempt to repeat a discussion Jim gave earlier in 5110/6110. Many have tried. All have failed. A successful discussion requires you to present your perspective, not Jim's.
Take pride in your discussion.