Publications
For a fairly non-technical discussion of the studies presented in these pages, please see a talk on this subject at the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, or a radio interview with Radio Ecoshock. A slightly more technical short talk was presented at the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global & Regional Climate Change.
In terms of articles, these two are written for a more lay audience:
Our Capacity to Discover and Produce Energy Matters, Retirement Management Journal, Fall, 2015
Can we predict long run economic growth?, Retirement Management Journal 2 (2), 53-61
Physics and your retirement savings: How energy reserves are like the world’s collective retirement account, Retirement Weekly, Oct 11, 2013
For a more general physics for the evolution of economic innovation and growth, and the implications for where civilization might be headed in a world where the economy becomes increasingly coupled to the environment:
Long run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis, Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2013EF000171
Long run evolution of the global economy: 2. Hindcasts of Innovation and Growth, Earth System Dynamics
How persistent is civilization growth? arXiv:1101.5635v1
No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change, Earth System Dynamics 3, 1-17, doi:10.5194/esd-3-1-2012
Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide? Climatic Change, 104, 437-455, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9
Methods and data for the calculation of the relationship between global wealth and power consumption
Long run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis Supporting Material, Earth’s Future doi:10.1002/2013EF000171
For a more mathematical discussion of how I think we could describe the evolution of systems of arbitrary complexity (like civilization), expressed as a response to the discovery and depletion of reserves of energy and raw materials:
Modes of Growth in Dynamic Systems doi:10.1098/rspa.2012.0039 (online at Proc. Roy. Soc. A), 2012
Economics About Physics of the economy What is wealth?
Energy, Innovation and growth Economic inertia Economic Forecasting Jevons' Paradox
Physics vs Mainsteam Economics Is Macroeconomics a Science? The economic heat engine
Economics and Climate GDP is not Wealth Are renewables the answer?
Is population growth a problem? Will growth transition to collapse?
What is your carbon footprint? Media Publications Presentations FAQ Criticisms